Investment firm Morgan Stanley says that the initial very strong demand for the iPhone 17 family is continuing, and just based on that, Apple should slightly exceed Wall Street expectations for the quarter.
Wedbush is more positive in its expectations for Apple's forthcoming Q4 earnings call, but now Morgan Stanley broadly agrees that Apple will beat predictions. In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Morgan Stanley's analysts note that initial iPhone 17 demand has already raised Apple's stocks, but says it believes this will continue through to the end of 2025.
The analysts downplay just how much Apple may beat Wall Street expectations though. They advise that there will be small positive growth for iPhones going into the remainder of the year, plus they predict Services will rise too.
Nonetheless, Morgan Stanley is not changing its $298 price target. Its analysts say they are waiting for more information from suppliers, and for final results from China's 11/11 shopping festival.
However, it notes that the iPhone Air sold out in China, and that Indian reports show double-digit growth of 2025's models over 2024's.
Plus its tracking of lead times for the iPhone 17 range continue to be longer than for the iPhone 16 at the same time in 2024. Specifically in China, the iPhone Air's lead times were 10.5 days longer than the iPhone 16 Plus from 2024 that it replaced.
The company also says that its supply chain sources suggest that orders for the iPhone 17 may reach 95 million in the second half of 2025. Although as yet, Morgan Stanley continues to estimate an overall 90 million for the same period.
At the same time, its team covering China has raised its estimates by 4 million. Morgan Stanley says it believes this estimated figure could be conservative.
Consequently, it is therefore raising its September quarter forecast to 56.9 million iPhones sold, which is an increase of two million.
Looking ahead
For the December quarter, Morgan Stanley is now expecting Apple to sell one million more iPhones than the consensus on Wall Street. It again, though, describes this as conservative and notes that it doesn't include any Chinese iPhone Air sales.
Morgan Stanley does not, though, expect anything but iPhone and Services to significantly grow in the September quarter or later. It hasn't seen any change to iPad orders in the last few months.
The company says that it is now expected that Apple will do well in its next earnings call. It further says that investors should be looking at Apple's capital expenditure reports, though, as this will be a sign of investment in Private Cloud Compute.
Morgan Stanley does expect further growth from a relaunched Apple Intelligence in Spring 2026. Then, too, it believes that there will be an iPhone Fold in September 2026, which will also boost Apple's earnings.
Although separately, there have been reports that the iPhone Fold will be delayed into 2027.
