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Post-holiday iPhone sales fears 'overblown,' analyst says

Contrary to some recent reports, one analyst firm believes that adverse market conditions for iPhone sales are being given too much weight and predicts better performance than previously expected buttressed by high demand for the iPhone 7 Plus.




Timothy Arcuri from Cowen & Company is sticking with previous estimates and predicting 50.5 million iPhone sales for Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2017. Additionally, the firm has revised its iPhone 7 numbers down by 500,000 units, and iPhone 7 Plus sales up 2 million, thereby increasing the average selling price of Apple's most important product.

Arcuri also predicts that the iPhone SE will see similar sales in the period as the 5s from 2016, with around 5 million units purchased by consumers.

Arcuri expects to see 76 million iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, effectively unchanged from previous estimates, and higher than most other predictions. Around 50 percent of sales are said to be of the iPhone 7, with 33 percent iPhone 7 Plus, and the SE in the "high single-digits" of million sales.

Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one, but at the expense of the post-holiday quarter.

Another factor proclaimed by analysts to potentially drag down Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2017 is the "supercycle" that may be induced by a combination of factors leading to pent-up demand for a 10-year anniversary "iPhone 8" in the fall.

Apple's rumored "iPhone 8" is said to feature next-generation technology like an OLED "wraparound" screen with Touch ID home button and other sensors embedded behind the glass. Recent rumblings out of Apple's East Asian supply chain suggest the device will ditch aluminum for forged stainless steel as part of a "glass sandwich" design reminiscent of the iPhone 4 series.