UBS raises Apple Q1 2021 revenue estimates on iPhone 12, Mac strength

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, UBS analyst David Vogt raised his Q1 2021 Apple revenue estimate to $106.9 billion, up from $98.9 billion. He also bumped up his earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate to $1.45, up from $1.35.

The analyst expects December iPhone unit shipments to clock in at about 78.5 million, around 5 million shipments better than his previous forecast of 73.5 million. That number is also higher than December quarter shipments in 2016 and follows three straight years of Q1 declines.

Those shipments numbers are coupled with an higher-than-expected average selling price (ASP) because of a consumer skew toward the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max.

Vogt forecasts Apple reporting iPhone revenue of $63.8 billion during the quarter, well above his prior prediction of $58 billion and above Wall Street consensus of about $59 billion.

The analyst also believes that Mac shipments could come in around 6.9 million units, up 3% sequentially. Those numbers could drive Mac revenue to around $9.5 billion, 10% higher than consensus.

Additionally, UBS is modeling Apple iPhone shipments totaling 215 million units in 2021. That would represent 13.5% year-over-year growth after shipments of around 190 million in 2020.

The higher ASP of $812.50 is also based on data that indicates Apple's iPhone 12 Pro models made up about 37.5% of units shipped in the December quarter. That's above the 30% mix of higher-tier iPhone 11 units in 2020. He believes iPhone 12 units will account for roughly 75% of all iPhone models shipped during the holiday quarter.

Vogt maintains his $115 price target, based on a 27x multiple on its 2022 earnings-per-share estimate of $4.23.