iPhone 13 delivery estimates contract but remain higher than iPhone 12

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan lead analyst Samik Chatterjee analyzed lead times — or the estimated timeline for receiving an iPhone order — for the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro models in week nine of their availability.

Relative to this point after the launch of the iPhone 12 series, lead times remained elevated across all iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro models, Chatterjee writes. However, lead times have moderated slightly across all models.

In other words, delivery estimates are improving, but they're still longer than the iPhone 12 was nine weeks after that lineup launched.

Delivery estimates in the US across the board moderated to an average of 8 days for the iPhone 13 mini, 10 days for the iPhone 13, and 26 days for the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max.

In the US, which accounts for around 35% of iPhone shipments, delivery estimates remained stable at 11 days for the iPhone 13 and 28 days for the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max. Lead times for the iPhone 13 mini moderated from 11 days to 10 days.

China, which accounts for about 15% of iPhone shipments, saw moderation across the entire iPhone 13 lineup. Delivery times for the iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro, and iPhone 13 Pro Max stood at 9, 17, 34, and 34 days respectively in week nine.

It was a similar story in Germany and the UK, which each account for around 5% of iPhone sales. Lead times moderated across all models in those two regions.

"Despite the moderation in lead times as supply improves, it remains stable in the US - indicating solid demand trends, and it remains the most elevated on a geographic basis in China - indicating much higher than anticipated demand, which bodes well for interest/demand for the iPhone 13 series in aggregate globally relative to investor expectations for a softer volume cycle than the iPhone 12 series," Chatterjee writes.