iPhone 16 may not see super cycle after all, says report

Earnings calls from key iPhone suppliers suggest iPhone 16 isn't being ordered in any greater quantity than iPhone 15, bringing the rumored Apple Intelligence spurred super cycle into question.

Analysts have been connecting the dots since WWDC to suggest iPhone 16 could drive significant sales due to Apple Intelligence demand. However, the speculation isn't allegedly being reflected in parts orders from key suppliers.

A new post from long-time supply chain analyst and Apple leaker Ming-Chi Kuo says Largan and TSMC commented on part demand during their earnings calls. Both said they hadn't seen a demand spike that would indicate an upcoming iPhone super cycle.

In fact, Kuo says orders for iPhone 16 units at 87 million units for the second half of 2024 haven't surpassed iPhone 15 orders at 91 million units for the same time period in 2023. Parts manufacturers have seen consistent orders.

A previous industry report suggested that Apple wouldn't release many Apple Intelligence features until early 2025. So, it seems unlikely that demand would spike in the fall thanks to an iPhone feature that isn't widely available outside of betas.

The iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max are the only existing iPhones that can run Apple Intelligence. It is believed that the entire iPhone 16 lineup will be able to run Apple's AI, driving sales.

However, without an Apple Intelligence launch in the fall, demand isn't expected to change. Given supply chain orders, at least according to Kuo, it seems Apple isn't planning for a super cycle either.

18 Comments

charlesn 11 Years · 1193 comments

About 5 months ago

Also according to prior Kuo predictions: last year's iPhone 15 lineup would debut wtth an 8-inch foldable screen model (NOPE!); Pro models would have notchless, under Display Touch ID (NOPE! ) and a periscope camera (NOPE!). Once you start keeping track of what Kuo "predicts," the total BS of it all piles up pretty quickly. Flip a coin or throw darts at a board of predictions and you'll likely be at least as accurate as Kuo.

shrave10 9 Years · 65 comments

Beware of those who have had there AAPL shares called away and need to talk the stock down for re-entry into long position

mike1 10 Years · 3437 comments

Anticipated consumer demand, Apple's internal forecasts and POs to vendors are very different things.

Component orders for launch may be adjusted later once consumer demand and timing is more clearly visible.

Upgrades don't all happen on day one for a variety of reasons.

JFC_PA 7 Years · 947 comments

Or not. lol

geekmee 13 Years · 647 comments

Apple will roll out Apple Intelligence as it deems necessary now that they have a beachhead.

I don’t believe that Apple Intelligence will
become a salient part of the phone until around iPhone 17 or 18.

But we shall see.