Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is the latest to report the unsurprising news that the iPhone 17 Pro Max is in high demand, but claims it's much harder to determine whether or not the iPhone Air is a success.
First the orange iPhone 17 Pro Max went on backorder pretty much instantaneously after preorders began. Then Chinese resellers reported that it took iPhone 17 one minute to match the first full day's sales of the iPhone 16.
Now analyst Ming-Chi Kuo backs up the reports saying the iPhone 17 is outpacing the iPhone 16. But he also adds detail about production numbers — although he doesn't appear to have any basis for them.
Writing on Twitter, he says that in total, Apple planned to produce around 25% more of the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max, than it did in 2024 with the iPhone 16 range. That's the average across those three models, but he says by itself, production of the iPhone 17 Pro Max is up 60% — and it's always the Pro Max models that are the biggest sellers at launch.
Then analysing the shipping dates on the online Apple Store, he claims that the delivery times are roughly the same for the iPhone 17 Pro Max as they were for the iPhone 16 Pro Max. Consequently, he concludes that demand for the top of the range model is particularly high.
He's more cautious about using Apple Store shipping times to estimate demand for the iPhone Air, though.
Throughout the first day of preorders, the iPhone Air remained available for delivery on September 19 in all colors and all storage configurations. At time of writing, the 256GB version of the Light Gold one is delayed 7-10 days, while all versions of the Cloud White one are backordered 2-3 weeks.
However, Kuo also reports, also without citing any sources, that Apple made three times as many of the iPhone Air as it did the iPhone 16 Plus that it replaces in the lineup. Consequently, he concludes that it's not possible to estimate demand based on the Apple Store sales for this model.
In practice, it's not possible to estimate any demand because Apple never releases details of how many iPhones it has made. Even if Kuo's production estimate are precisely right, he can't know what proportion of manufactured iPhones goes to online or to physical Apple Stores.
Kuo believes that such strong sales will help with Apple's next quarter earnings report. However, he sees the earnings improvements to be temporary, as investors wait for the iPhone 18 range.
