While saying the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle is only modestly more than predicted, Morgan Stanley sees promising signs for the iPhone 18 and has raised its target price to $298.
Back in March 2025, the investment bank cut its price down to $252 because of fears that upgrades to the iPhone 17 range would be low. Now in a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, its analysts are saying that it is seeing higher upgrades than predicted — and believes more is to come.
Specifically, its industry checks suggest that while the supply chain hasn't yet increased iPhone production, it will do so imminently. Details from multiple suppliers suggests that in the remaining months of 2025, Apple will increase its iPhone 17 order from 84-86 million, to something in the low 90 millions.
That increase is expected to concentrate on the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max. Morgan Stanley believes that this will offset how it understands that demand for the iPhone Air has been lower than predicted.
Then despite saying that there has only been modest growth over the whole iPhone range, the analysts also say that this appears conservative conclusion since early demand is continuing to be strong.
The company also says that the strength of demand for the iPhone 17 range has got it more excited about the prospects for the iPhone 18 one. That's in part because the analysts think current demand comes from owners of what it describes as aged iPhones.
It presumes that next year there will be more users whose iPhones fall into that category, and so there should be another strong upgrade cycle. Plus it predicts six iPhones will launch in 2026, which it doesn't specify but are presumably:
- iPhone 18e
- Base iPhone 18
- iPhone Air
- iPhone Fold
- iPhone 18 Pro
- iPhone 18 Pro Max
What the iPhone Fold could look like - Image Credit: AppleInsider
Morgan Stanley predicts that the iPhone Fold will be a particular attraction. The company now expects Apple to sell 243 million iPhones across the whole of 2026.
But it offers a bull case, where Apple actually ships around 270 million iPhones. Morgan Stanley thinks that is achievable if both the iPhone Fold and future Apple Intelligence features create strong demand.
In that case, the company says that its bull case scenario would see a price target of $376.
Most recently, Morgan Stanley has also been among the analysts who correctly expected Apple to retain its deal with Google. It was also upbeat about how it believed Apple would surmount tariff issues.
