iPhone 13 delivery estimates hint at improving supply chain conditions

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee writes that lead times for the mid-range iPhone 13 models stabilized in the seventh week after launch. Lead times, or the time it takes for a consumer to receive their order, for the iPhone 13 Pro models declined.

An average of lead times across several regions indicated that delivery estimates for the iPhone 13 mini and iPhone 13 stabilized at 12 and 13 days, respectively. Lead times for the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max moderated to 32 days, down from 37 days in the sixth week.

Lead times are still elevated significantly versus the iPhone 12 family.

In the U.S., which accounts for about 35% of iPhone shipments, delivery estimates stabilized at 11 days for the iPhone 13 mini and iPhone 13, while the two Pro models moderated to 28 days. The two midrange devices were available for one-day pickup at retail locations, while the two Pro models were not.

Lead times in China, which make up 15% of iPhone shipments, expanded across all models. The iPhone 13 mini and iPhone 13 clocked in at 15 and 19 days, up from 10 and 14 days the week prior. Estimated delivery dates for the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max expanded to 45 days and 45 days, up from 40 days the week before.

By comparison, estimated delivery dates in the U.K. and Germany moderated across all four models. In the U.K., lead times for the iPhone 13 mini and iPhone 13 moderated to 11 days, while they moderated to 25 days for the iPhone 13 Pro, and iPhone 13 Pro Max. In Germany, they stood at 11, 11, 28, and 30 days for the iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro, and iPhone 13 Pro Max, respectively.

Lead times are not an accurate indication of demand. Instead, they paint a picture of supply and demand balance. Although sales of the iPhone 13 appear robust, ongoing shipping constraints are likely the main contributing factor for the longer delivery estimates.

Despite that, Chatterjee writes that the moderation in lead times hints at supply chain improvements, which could add more confidence to Apple's expectation of "very solid" year-over-year growth in the December quarter.