Malcolm Owen
The Apple Vision Pro probably won't break half a million sales before the end of the year, predicts analysts, with it predicted to endure a massive drop in U.S. sales heading into the fall.
Apple's release of the Apple Vision Pro has been extremely gradual and in relatively low figures relative to other hardware. Due to how it's been handled, the sales of the headset aren't thought to even reach the half-million point in 2024 at all.
According to analysts at IDC speaking to Bloomberg, the glacial sales of the Apple Vision Pro has so far failed to reach over 100,000 units per quarter.
This could be attributed to Apple's extremely slow rollout of the headset post-launch. As an expensive first-generation piece of hardware sold in U.S. stores, Apple has been extremely careful in bringing the headset to consumer eyes.
Apple did expand the availability of the Apple Vision Pro to outside the United States on June 28, including sales and preorders in nine new territories around the world.
However, this may not help increase sales by a considerable margin. IDC predicts a 75% drop in U.S. sales in the current quarter, meaning international sales will probably just offset the downturn.
This view seemingly echoes similar sentiments on U.S. sales from earlier in 2024. In April, Ming-Chi Kuo said shipment estimates were cut from a previous expectation of 700,00 to 800,000 units to between 400,000 and 450,000.
Cheaper option and content choices
IDC forecasts that, if Apple brings out another model that costs about half as much as the Apple Vision Pro, that could help sales in 2025. It won't necessarily help sales improve in 2024.
The rumored headset, a consumer-grade offering, is expected to cut back on specifications to reduce costs. It may even need to be tethered to a Mac or an iPhone instead of being a self-contained device, which could also save weight.
As well as the headset's existence in other countries, IDC offers that the content you can actually see on the Apple Vision Pro will impact sales.
"The Vision Pro's success, regardless of its price, will ultimately depend on the available content," proposes IDC vice president Francisco Jeronimo. As Apple's headset enters new markets, Jeronimo insists it is crucial that local content is produced and made available for the device.
For Apple's part, it has continued to build upon the immersive experiences it offered since the start of availability.
Blackmagic Design also waded into the immersive arena with the introduction of an end-to-end system for shooting Apple Vision Pro 3D content. This included a dual-lens camera, as well as file management initiatives that worked all the way to its video editing tool, DaVinci Resolve.
On the app side, Apple's selection of native visionOS apps is still relatively small, though users can also use many iPadOS apps without too much trouble. There has even been an effort to create a visionOS hackathon to help bulk up the lacking app numbers.
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22 Comments
As outlined on DaringFireball.net in early May, John Gruber pointed out that there's no capacity for making more than around 450K VisionPro units and any "expectations" from outside bullshit artists are just that - bullshit.
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/05/06/vision-pro-sales-are-going-just-about-as-expected
I think Apple should just close up shop on that news.
Seriously, some of these stories are just ridiculous. Did anyone really think that over half a million people were going to shell out over $4000 for a first gen product? This AVP is in many ways, the prototype. It provides the platform for future development. It provides Apple with a ton of feedback on what a second or third generation should be, as well as a lower cost model. It provides developers with a real platform to produce apps for the spatial environment.
First gen products are always super expensive and often don't sell very well. How many people spent $15,000 (it was somewhere in that neighborhood) on the first gen 42" flat panel televisions about 30 years ago? ($15k in 1997 is oner $28k today).
We're just six months into Apple Vision Pro... let's talk in about two or three years to see how it's doing.
yes, less money and untethered, can you hear that Apple B)