iPhone 15 pre-orders up 10% worldwide year-over-year, says Wedbush

Exploded view of the iPhone 15 Pro Max

Wedbush was positive about Apple before the iPhone 15 launch, then called that event "impressive," and now is reporting the range is seeing greater demand than predicted.

"iPhone 15 pre-orders began this Friday and so far (as of Sunday pm) are tracking much stronger than we and the Street expected and up roughly 10%-12% from iPhone 14 based on our analysis," say the analysts in a note to investors seen by AppleInsider.

"The mix is heavily skewed towards iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max with Pro Max exceptionally strong in the US, China, India, and parts of Europe," it continues. "In India we believe pre-orders are up close to 25% YoY and also looking strong out of the gates importantly in China which remains front and center for the Street given recent noise coming out of the region."

"Our Asia supply chain checks this weekend give us increased confidence that iPhone units should be roughly 85 million units out of the gates," says Wedbush, "and could be close to 90 million as eye-popping carrier promotions already underway will be a major catalyst for upgrades into holiday season."

While Wedbush says the carrier promotions are an element, it also believes that another is what it has previously described as a "mini super cycle" of users upgrading from older iPhones.

"We believe iPhone units should level out in the 225 million unit range in FY24... as Cupertino has a massive pent-up installed base upgrade cycle now underway," says the note. "This speaks to the underlying demand story that Apple anticipates for this next iPhone release with our estimates that ~250 million+ of 1.2 billion iPhone users worldwide have not upgraded their phones in over 4 years."

Despite the greater sales of the iPhone 15 at launch, that figure of 225 million iPhones for the year is what Wedbush previously predicted for the year. Consequently, Wedbush is maintaining its $240 target price for Apple.