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Consumer demand for the iPhone 12 Pro is continuing to strain available supply, while demand for the iPhone 12 Pro Max is moderating, according to JP Morgan.
In an iPhone availability tracker note seen by AppleInsider, analyst Samik Chatterjee writes that lead times — or the time it takes for an iPhone order to arrive — are continuing to build for the iPhone 12 Pro model. He says that implies that the device will have the "most staying power" until the next iPhone launch.
Compared to the previous week, lead times for the larger iPhone 12 Pro Max appear to be moderating, particularly in China. Chatterjee says that's because demand is dissipating among early adopters of the 6.7-inch model. Previous research suggested that demand for the iPhone 12 Pro Max, relative to supply, was higher than the iPhone 12 Pro.
Lead times also increased moderately for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 mini, though both models are still well below the two Pro variants.
Across all regions that JP Morgan tracks, delivery-at-home timing for the iPhone 12 mini, iPhone 12, and iPhone 12 Pro expanded modestly and are now at four days, four days, and 28 days, respectively. Delivery-at-home timing dropped to 20 days from 23 days the previous week for the iPhone 12 Pro Max.
Compared to delivery-at-home estimates, times for in-store pickup vary by region.
In the U.S., which accounts for about 35% of iPhone shipments, delivery times for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro Max clocked in at 32 days and 18 days, respectively. The two iPhone 12 models stood at three days, and in-store pickup stoop at one day for all models.
Chinese consumers can now expect to get their iPhone 12 mini models in four days, their iPhone 12 models in six days, and their iPhone 12 Pro models in 30 days in the ninth week of availability. Lead times for the iPhone 12 Pro Max moderated to 15 days, down from 22. All fours models remained unavailable for in-store pickup.
In Germany, delivery times for the iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 clocked in at five days, while the iPhone 12 Pro showed a 23-day delivery time and the iPhone 12 Pro showed at 26-day delivery time. German buyers can pick up any model in-store in about a day, although the iPhone 12 Pro was unavailable for brick-and-mortar pickup.
Buyers in the U.K. can expect their iPhone 12 mini or iPhone 12 devices in a single day, while lead times for the iPhone 12 Pro Max stood at 22 days and the iPhone 12 Pro clocked in at 25 days. Both Pro models remained unavailable for pickup, although the iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 had one-day pickup times.
Observations showing Apple's largest iPhone in the line seeing peak demand shortly after release is consistent with previous historical trends. The same trend was observed with the iPhone 6S Plus, iPhone 7 Plus, iPhone XS Max, iPhone 11 Pro Max.
The iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max officially launched on Friday, Nov. 13, while the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 launched on Oct. 23.
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Wesley Hilliard
AppleInsider Staff
Andrew Orr
Amber Neely
William Gallagher
1 Comment
I think is a somewhat misleading headline. Lead times do not necessarily indicate demand. It's also negative, for seemingly no reason. Why not "iPhone 12 Pro lead times exceed iPhone 12 Pro Max leads times?" The problem with the headline is that there are other factors that may be at work, like supply increase. Additionally, it's a a very unlike-AI tone of "Apple DOOM!" implied.